In the EU mobility transition, 2035 has been circled in red on the calendar. In the original version of the Green Deal, a de facto sales ban of Internal Combustion Engines Vehicles (ICEV) in 2035 would pave the way to zero emissions for individual road transport in 2050. Soon, German car manufacturers advocated to also allow ICEVs running on e-fuels, deemed as CO2 efficient as Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV).
As time goes by, BEV sales have not picked up as expected for many reasons that include the purchase cost, range anxiety, trade war with China or Tesla’s founder political stance. Electrically chargeable cars, BEVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), accounted for 2% of the vehicle pool by 2024. There is now the real possibility of motorists extending the life of their ICEVs, something quite doable with the durability of 21st century cars, pushing back the objective of 100% BEVs on European roads in 2050.
A “reality check” was programmed as part of the Green Deal regulation. It is now called a Strategic Dialogue, which can be read as a necessary revision of the “100 % BEV sales in 2035” strategy. One first practical result this March is the proposal by the European Commission to postpone by two years the 2025 target for CO2 emissions of new cars, deemed unattainable this year with the lackluster sales of low-emission vehicles. Transition is a slow process, and convincing purchasers is not necessarily effective by preaching from the pulpit, digital or not, from the likes of Transport & Environment or ICCT.
The Role of Hybrids and Ethanol in Emission Reduction
Industry is packed with pragmatists. Car manufacturers, facing BEV sales below expectations while having committed zillions in the technological switch from thermal to electric propulsion, must find interim solutions, such as hybrids or range extenders. From a manufacturing point of view, this is a smart combination of thermal and electric technologies that will smooth out the transition from the former to the latter. It also offers a less pricey option, compared to BEV, to the purchasing motorist.
Rumor has it now that hybrids (only PHEV, so far) may still be allowed after 2035. 2024 sales do show a strong argument in favor of hybrids, though it must be noted that non-rechargeable versions dominate the hybrid space:
Source: ACEA
Best of two worlds, the car manufacturers’ and the motorist’s viewpoints, or worst solution, if you listen to the eco-radicals?
With regards to the latter opinion, one cannot discard the fact that hybrid cars are heavier, not making sense in terms of CO2 emissions at full speed when the thermal engine runs, while making sense in congested traffic when the electric motor is at the helm. For the oil and gas industry, hybrids signal a resilient business for gasoline. Gasoline-propelled cars now comprise 50% of the EU car pool (2023), with diesel relegated to the heavy-duty transport, for sales at least, as the existing pool will take time to shrink down from the present 40% of the pool (2023). That’s good news for the European refining industry that is long on gasoline and short on diesel. There will be a lower demand but a more balanced product slate.
Still, statistics in France show mileage equally shared between three types of thoroughfares, main roads and motorways, local roads, and urban grids, hinting that hybrids would, on average, run in over-emitting mode two-thirds of the time. With an over-weight ranging between 20 and 35%, the hybrid car fuel over-consumption increases by 1 to 1.5 liter per 100 km in thermal mode. A simple calculation shows driving a hybrid car in the context of average traffic repartition and average gasoline consumption is beneficial for the CO2 emissions, by at most 20%, but is highly sensitive to the percentage of urban driving. Should the one-third percentage be divided by two, the CO2 emissions are the same as for thermal cars.
Biofuels and Hybrids Can Maximize CO2 Reduction in Europe
The obvious solution to maximize CO2 emission reductions is to increase the ethanol content in gasoline, especially as ethanol produced in Europe nowadays abates CO2 emissions by 80%. Recent models, like hybrids, can accept 20 or 25% ethanol, E20-E25, which would allow some 40% CO2 emission reduction in the above standard conditions. Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs) can run on E85, a cheap modification for a new car, and would get close to CO2 emission abatement claimed by BEVs. Of course, the meaningless 7% cap on first-generation biofuels, the 2015 compromise to include land use change impact in the regulation, would have to be rescinded, a necessary reality check that European biofuels do not create food issues.
Hybridization looks like a smart transitory solution to allow enough time for acceptance of electromobility at mass market level, in short, clearing the many hurdles that plague BEVs these days, but should be accompanied by increased low-carbon fuel mandates. This should be a no-brainer in the strategic dialogue to come, if ever the advocates of ethanol are admitted at the table of negotiation.
Philippe Marchand is a Bioenergy Steering Committee Member of the European Technology and Innovation Platform (ETIP).
