In media and politics, using massive figures is a well-known rhetorical trick. But does it still hold sway in an increasingly skeptical 21st-century audience?
Every year in France, one trillion kilometers are driven—82% of them in internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) primarily powered by fossil fuels. Biofuels account for less than 10%.
Transportation is responsible for one-third of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—a sector that, unlike industry or housing, has neither progressed nor regressed in absolute terms. This stagnation underscores the urgent need for deep decarbonization to meet climate targets. The first major milestone is looming: by 2030, a 31% reduction in transport-related GHG emissions is required, a stark contrast to the stagnation of recent years.
The prevailing political narrative attributes this stagnation to the Jevons effect: gains in energy efficiency have been offset by increasing mileage. Achieving the necessary reductions will demand robust regulations aligned with the 2015 Paris Agreement, the EU Green Deal, and the Fit-for-55 objectives, which now call for a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990—up from the previous 40% target.
However, regulatory commitments can be fleeting. While these measures should be enshrined in law, they could ultimately be reduced to executive decrees, vulnerable to political shifts, particularly amid the current backlash against the ambitious green policies of the early 2020s.
France’s updated National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC) and Energy Multi-Year Program (PPE) lay out the country’s plan to meet its ambitious climate objectives. But do these documents inspire confidence?
A Critical Perspective
Reading Stephen Markley’s The Deluge provides a sobering lens through which to view these policies. The skepticism is warranted. A 2023 official review admitted that only 45% of the regulatory measures in place could realistically achieve their stated objectives. This raises profound concerns: Can democracy reconcile the contradictions between societal aspirations and harsh realities? Between short-term political survival amid inflation and debt, and the long-term imperative of planetary sustainability?
The incremental nature of democracy appears at odds with the urgency required to combat climate change. A critical examination of two key themes in the SNBC and PPE—individual mobility and freight transport—illustrates this dilemma.
Individual Mobility: A Cultural Shift with No Budget
Limiting car usage is the primary strategy for reducing transport-related emissions. The proposed measures include reducing home-to-work distances through better urban planning, promoting car-sharing, increasing cycling and walking, and expanding public transport options such as rail and express buses. Yet, these initiatives lack adequate funding, effectively calling for an immediate cultural transformation—an unrealistic expectation.
Electromobility, the second pillar, faces significant challenges. EV sales are stalling in 2024 due to high costs and range anxiety, while government incentives are being curtailed due to budget constraints. Despite this, the SNBC/PPE aims for two-thirds of new car sales to be electric by 2030, increasing the share of electrified vehicles on the road from 2% in early 2024 to 15%. Is this a bold vision or political posturing with no viable execution plan?
For many citizens who depend on cars for work and leisure, these policies remain abstract and impractical. Cultural shifts take time, and behavioral change cannot be mandated overnight.
Freight Transport: Between Ideals and Market Forces
Shifting freight transport from road to rail is an obvious solution for reducing emissions. However, the European Commission’s pro-market stance has undermined public rail infrastructure. The forced dismantling of SNCF Fret, the freight subsidiary of France’s national rail service, in the name of competition has had predictable consequences: as seen in the UK in the late 20th century, private operators prioritize short-term profit over infrastructure investment and maintenance. As a result, the market share of rail freight in France declined by 15% between 2015 and 2022.
Meanwhile, deregulation of heavy-duty road transport in the EU, aimed at reducing personnel costs, further erodes rail’s competitiveness. Instead of expanding, rail freight is struggling to maintain its current position.
The official answer? Electric trucks. But the SNBC/PPE offers no concrete explanation for how this transition will be achieved.
Conclusion: A Recipe for Skepticism
Given these realities, optimism is hard to come by. Why so much taxpayer money is spent on producing policy documents detached from execution remains a mystery—beyond sustaining bureaucratic inertia. Such inefficiencies only fuel populist sentiment and resistance to meaningful climate action.
As France confronts the trillion-kilometer challenge, the gap between ambition and implementation remains vast. Without a drastic shift toward actionable, well-funded strategies, the country’s climate objectives risk becoming little more than political theater.
Philippe Marchand is a Bioenergy Steering Committee Member of the European Technology and Innovation Platform (ETIP).
