Jeanne du Barry’s famous words in 1793, as she faced the guillotine during the French Revolution, seem fitting for some EU car manufacturers today, confronted by the near-imminent ban on internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The prohibition, set for 2035, is a mere decade away. Opposition to the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) extends beyond the United States. At the November 2024 Council on Competitiveness in Brussels, seven EU countries—led by Italy and Austria, mostly from the eastern part of the Union—challenged the ambitious goals of the European Green Deal.
These countries, home to a quarter of the EU’s vehicle assembly plants, are grappling with economic uncertainties. Many of these plants were established after the Iron Curtain fell, as part of a drive to lower manufacturing costs. Their future now looks uncertain, particularly following China’s decision to block new EV assembly projects in response to EU tariffs on Chinese EVs.
What are these nations advocating? They call for a balanced approach that considers competitiveness alongside climate goals. Specifically, they argue for technology neutrality in low-carbon transport solutions. The EU Commission’s ICEV ban, however, mandates zero CO2 emissions from vehicles, effectively excluding alternative pathways to achieve similar results.
Among the alternatives are e-fuels, supported by Germany, and biofuels like ethanol. EU-produced ethanol, for example, reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by nearly 80% compared to fossil gasoline. Ethanol-powered flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs), which have been successful in Brazil for decades, offer a cost-effective solution. These vehicles require only a few hundred euros of additional equipment per car and provide substantial GHG emission reductions. From a cradle-to-grave lifecycle perspective, the remaining emissions associated with ethanol use are comparable to the climate impact of battery production in China.
As petrol reemerges as the primary fuel for new cars, diesel is rapidly declining, now representing less than 15% of new vehicle registrations in 2023. Gasoline demand has grown modestly (+9% over the last decade), driven by increased ethanol use and efficiency gains, while diesel demand has stagnated, shown in the figure below. This imbalance—where diesel-to-gasoline demand ratios peaked near 3:1 at the end of the last decade—has strained EU refiners. A shift toward gasoline demand is good news for the refining industry, which remains the dominant supplier of transport fuels and will continue to play a critical role for years to come.
The fate of the “Magnificent Seven” nations’ call for technological neutrality remains uncertain. France, home to Stellantis and Renault—both heavily invested in EV manufacturing—has opposed the move. Germany, the EU’s leading car manufacturing nation, has responded positively, suggesting the need for a strategic dialogue about the future of the European car industry. This could signal an emerging reality check.
Despite progress, significant challenges to the mass adoption of EVs persist:
While EVs are a promising solution for combating climate change, accelerating their adoption remains a complex issue for Western societies. History teaches us that ICEVs became mainstream only after game-changing innovations—such as affordable gasoline and Ford’s moving assembly line—emerged. What will be the equivalent breakthroughs for EVs in the 21st century?
Philippe Marchand is a Bioenergy Steering Committee Member of the European Technology and Innovation Platform (ETIP).
