Global State of Play: RFNBOs (The Wrap Up Report)

Introduction

The global development of Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBOs) highlights a rapidly evolving landscape driven by the urgent need to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors like aviation, maritime, and heavy industry. Across the EU, U.S., and ROW regions, RFNBOs are emerging as pivotal solutions but achieving scalability in production and adoption is fraught with challenges, including high production costs, infrastructure deficits, and the need for consistent and supportive policy frameworks. This report, the last in a series on RFNBOs, synthesizes key insights from the three previous reports and explores the interconnected drivers and barriers that will shape the global RFNBO market. It delves into the overarching trends shaping RFNBO development, including the growing role of policy and financial mechanisms, persistent infrastructure gaps and the opportunities presented by global trade and market dynamics.

In the EU, advanced legislative frameworks such as RED III and mandates under ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime are positioning RFNBOs as a cornerstone of the energy transition strategy. Yet, these ambitious goals face hurdles, including uneven Member State adoption and reliance on costly technologies like electrolyzers. Meanwhile, the U.S. market is beginning to advance through a mix of federal initiatives, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Hydrogen Hubs, and state-level programs like Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS). Although these efforts are meant to drive domestic demand, regulatory uncertainties (new Trump Administration) and infrastructure challenges threaten timely execution. In the ROW regions, abundant renewable energy resources in Africa, Asia/Oceania, Latin America, and the Middle East underscore their potential as global RFNBO suppliers, but there is inconsistent policy support, economic instability, and infrastructure limitations.

Key Points

• RFNBOs are critical for decarbonizing hard-to-electrify sectors like aviation, maritime shipping, and heavy industry, making them essential to global energy transition efforts.
• By 2030, global RFNBO supply is projected to reach 43 million tons, falling short of the estimated demand of 53.5 million tons, reflecting a significant supply gap.
• By 2040, the supply gap widens, with 76 million tons of RFNBO supply against 93.5 million tons of demand, highlighting the need for accelerated scaling efforts.
• Bridging the global RFNBO supply-demand gap requires investments in infrastructure, cost-reduction strategies, harmonized certification systems, and international collaboration.