With Donald Trump Victory, Here Are His Energy and Climate Positions

Donald Trump has won the U.S. presidential election, injecting uncertainty into and possibly slowing the energy transition, both domestically and around the world.

Trump, the GOP nominee and former president, has squarely focused on the United States producing, extracting and processing its own oil, gas and minerals. He has dismissed the seriousness of climate change and referred to spending on clean energy and climate initiatives under President Joe Biden as a “Green New Scam.”

Under Trump, the speed of the nascent clean energy transition will slow down, but won’t change direction, Anna Mosby, senior research analyst with S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in a briefing note.

Cipher looked at Trump’s campaign rhetoric and policy positions, as well as what analysts are saying, to project what his prospective administration could mean for U.S. energy and climate action.

A significant open question is how Trump will tackle the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the signature climate law passed under President Biden, with nearly $400 billion in tax credits and grants for clean energy and technologies.

Trump could attempt to undo the law. The IRA was passed under budget reconciliation rules which only require a majority vote in the House and Senate.  The Republicans, if they have the trifecta, could repeal or change the IRA with simple majorities using the same budget reconciliation process. He could also revise tax credit regulations promulgated by the Treasury Department’s Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to benefit fossil fuel-related industries.

On the international stage, Trump may end U.S. contributions to the Green Climate Fund, which supports efforts by low-to-middle income countries to mitigate climate impacts. During his previous term in office, Trump pulled back U.S. participation in international climate diplomacy, including withdrawing from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.

When it comes to clean energy, Trump supports nuclear power and domestic mining of critical minerals that will make the U.S. less reliant on China. He has promised to impose tariffs on Chinese goods entering the country, including indirectly via Mexico.

He has made no bones about his opposition to wind energy. During the campaign, Trump railed against the struggling offshore technology — hit hard by inflation and supply chain woes — saying the projects end on “day one.”

Trump will likely push for more oil and gas drilling on public lands, including offshore sites. Notably, the U.S. is already the world’s leading producer of oil and natural gas, reaching new highs under the Biden administration.

Trump may also target Biden-era rules limiting carbon emissions from power plants and vehicle tailpipes, as well as those aimed at plugging methane leaks from oil and gas facilities.

In all, the future for the energy transition in the United States looks rockier with Trump in the White House.

Originally published by Cipher and available at this link.