In recent years, hydrogen was hailed as the next miracle energy solution, especially in the heavy transport sector. Advocates of hydrogen-powered fuel cells predicted they would soon replace diesel engines in trucks. The primary argument for this was that batteries, already a challenge for light-duty vehicles, were too bulky and heavy for use in heavy-duty trucks. Batteries would either take up too much space meant for cargo or require an impractical amount of energy just to move the vehicle itself, let alone the cargo.
At the time, Battery Electric Trucks (BETs) seemed like they were being dismissed. However, as we near the end of 2024, it appears that truck manufacturers, particularly in Europe, are betting on electricity, not hydrogen.
European Union regulations for sustainable mobility remain stringent. New truck greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must decrease by 15% in 2025 (compared to 2019 levels), by 45% in 2030, and by 90% in 2040. While there’s always the possibility that the newly appointed European Commission could soften these targets, it doesn’t seem likely—unless sales of electric trucks fall far short of expectations, which they currently are. Last year in France, less than 1% of new truck sales were electric, while 7% ran on natural gas or could use 100% biodiesel. For Europe to meet its regulatory goals, BETs will need to reach a 5% market share by 2025.
Expect strong advocacy from both the industrial and climate sectors. On the industrial side, European truck manufacturing is a serious business, with Volvo Trucks and Daimler leading globally in tractor-trailers (vehicles over 32 tons). However, Chinese truck manufacturers are increasing their exports. Will they ride the wave of Chinese car exports and challenge European legacy manufacturers?
On the climate side, heavy transport is responsible for a quarter of transportation GHG emissions. Moreover, this sector is expected to grow by double digits over the next decade.
Unsurprisingly, the main obstacles to replacing diesel trucks, which make up over 90% of the fleet, with BETs are price and range. Large operators like DHL or public authorities, such as postal services, can pass on the higher costs of electromobility to their customers, all while promoting their commitment to fighting climate change. However, smaller operators must focus on their profit and loss in a competitive market, where their main competition comes from lower-taxed Eastern European trucking companies that pay drivers significantly less. This pressure often pushes smaller companies to extend the life of their diesel trucks instead of replacing them.
The price issue is significant. A mid-size BET (19 tons) costs three times as much as a diesel truck. While energy costs are three times lower for BETs, the total cost of ownership (TCO) over the vehicle’s 15-year lifespan is still one-third higher. This means substantial public support is required, but such support is not guaranteed, as demonstrated by the 2023 cutbacks in Germany’s electric vehicle incentives. On top of this, the future price differential between electricity and diesel remains uncertain. According to McKinsey’s 2024 Global Energy Perspectives, electricity prices in Germany and the UK—major heavy transport markets—are expected to rise as the rush to replace fossil fuels with renewables continues, driving up transmission and distribution costs.
Source: McKinsey
Meanwhile, diesel prices could remain low as oil demand is projected to slowly decline over the next decade, potentially allowing the oil industry to downsize in an orderly manner.
At present, BETs have a range of around 300 kilometers, which aligns with the average daily distances for trucks: 400 km for tractor-trailers (which must stop anyway for drivers’ rest breaks) and 200 km for smaller, urban-bound trucks. Leading truck manufacturers are set to introduce vehicles with a 600 km range next year, signaling that BETs may soon be suitable for a wider range of transport scenarios.
However, recharging infrastructure remains a significant challenge, especially when it comes to accommodating large numbers of trucks simultaneously along major highways. The EU’s Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation, which mandates a charging station every 60 km on major EU highways by 2030, may help, but issues such as land availability, particularly in areas with Net Zero Artificialization mandates, remain. Battery swapping may offer a solution to some of these challenges.
First, the enthusiasm for hydrogen has waned, largely due to the lack of demand for green hydrogen and its high cost. Forecasts now suggest a reduction in expected hydrogen demand by 10-25% for 2050, implying a slower mid-term rollout. This may lead to a restriction or redirection of hydrogen use, such as focusing on producing synthetic liquid fuels (e-fuels) via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. E-fuels are easier to store and transport than hydrogen, particularly in existing vehicles. These uncertainties are causing truck manufacturers to worry about whether there will be enough hydrogen and if it will be adequately distributed.
Meanwhile, advancements in battery technology, combined with improvements in the integration of electric drivetrains, have made batteries smaller and lighter, addressing the earlier concerns about space and weight. This progress, combined with the fact that public funding is becoming scarcer in countries like France and Germany, suggests that future investments in clean energy infrastructure may prioritize electricity over hydrogen.
In conclusion, while hydrogen-powered trucks may eventually make an appearance, it seems that electric trucks are more likely to dominate the roads after 2040.
Philippe Marchand is a Bioenergy Steering Committee Member of the European Technology and Innovation Platform (ETIP).
