2024 is shaping up to be another pivotal year for the U.S., with a presidential election in November that will have far-reaching consequences for the future of our geopolitically troubled world. Despite the ongoing noise from the East, the U.S. remains the most powerful and influential nation, and what happens on its shores continues to significantly impact the rest of the world—including the mobility sector.
Drawing a bold parallel with U.S. political science, we can see how the evolution of mobility may follow paths influenced by Jacksonian populism or Jeffersonian isolationism. Recent developments—such as Ford and GM’s changes in strategy regarding Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and the imposition of 100% tariffs on Chinese BEV imports—may lead some to believe that the U.S. has substantially altered its approach to the future of mobility. However, the world, and the U.S. mobility ecosystem, is far more complex than this narrative suggests.
A more fitting analogy might be with Hamiltonian pragmatism. Alexander Hamilton, a Founding Father and the first Secretary of the Treasury, championed commerce, realism, and patriotism—values that remain highly relevant in today’s conversation about mobility, particularly as we seek sustainable solutions.
What are some of the CEOs of global, non-Chinese car manufacturers (and even some Chinese-owned ones) saying today? They’re arguing that customers are not yet ready to fully transition from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles to BEVs. Concerns over price, range anxiety, and resale value uncertainty continue to dominate the conversation, as EV technology rapidly evolves, particularly in terms of autonomy.
The battle between ICE vehicles and EVs may, at least in the short term, favor a third option: hybrids. Historically viewed as a compromise with the worst of both worlds—reduced miles per gallon in high-speed mode and limited electric range—hybrids are beginning to look more like a pragmatic transition. Combining hybrids with biofuels like ethanol could serve as an interesting interim solution.
Hybrids embody pragmatism and offer motorists a smoother transition from ICE vehicles to EVs. While politicians may impose green regulations that citizens must follow, individual commercial decisions are largely influenced by practicality, not ideology. In democracies, the state can guide its citizens through traffic restrictions and emission standards, but consumers—and savvy marketers—will always find ways to adapt.
The globalization of recent decades has brought significant benefits, but also notable drawbacks. Cheap, abundant products cannot be the sole goal, especially when local industries are decimated and well-paying jobs are offshored. The pandemic made it abundantly clear that supply chains can be fragile, and re-shoring has made a strong comeback. The recent history of the solar panel industry—gobbled up by China in less than two decades—may not predict a similar fate for the Western car manufacturing industry. While China has certainly gained a technological lead in electromobility through early national vision and industrial policy, we should remember that Japan and South Korea were able to build globally successful car brands—Toyota and Hyundai, among others—despite starting behind Europe and the U.S.
In today’s complex geopolitical climate, it’s unwise to depend on illiberal regimes like China, not only because of supply chain vulnerabilities but also due to broader security concerns. The car, a powerful symbol of personal freedom in the West, is too important to be left in the hands of foreign powers. The silent majority, whose voices are often only heard during elections, likely shares this sentiment, even if they express it quietly.
This should serve as a strong signal to Western car manufacturers: there is a future for them if they focus on what their customers truly want—affordability and ease of use. Policymakers must also listen to their voters and rely on science-based decision-making, rather than ideology. When it comes to fighting climate change, corporate success is tied to state power, much as it was in Hamilton’s vision. Investments in sustainable mobility are not just about creating local jobs; they’re about securing a competitive edge in the global geopolitical arena. Above all, we must embrace what’s possible now, while keeping an eye on what’s best in the distant future.
Philippe Marchand is a Bioenergy Steering Committee Member of the European Technology and Innovation Platform (ETIP).
