2018 EV Projections Analysis and Update on Automaker Investments

As noted in my original post on this topic, I promised I would keep members updated on an ongoing basis on EV penetration projections — to the extent the data has been publicized and is available. The spreadsheet below includes an update for the year 2018 and you can easily compare it to the data from 2017.  I collected about 10 major analyses on EVs from the last year, shown in the graphic below.  All of these studies are linked in the spreadsheet so that you can easily navigate to them.  You can download this graphic, of course, or access it in the spreadsheet and then modify and use as you like in your own work.

Here’s a few takeaways based on my analysis:

• There is no overall consensus on expected global EV passenger car penetration, but there is more “coalescing”; first, around the timeframe where EVs are expected to gain significant penetration in the marketplace — 2030-2040. Secondly, there appear to be “four schools of thought” on penetration that are fairly similar:
  • The conservative view: IEA’s New Policies Scenario view on EVs and the JP Morgan analyst Michael Cembalest see a 10% penetration by 2030, a fairly conservative view, and one that I share.
  • A more progressive view: IEA’s EV30@30 scenario and JP Morgan’s corporate analysis are both at 30% penetration by 2030.
  • The oil view: ExxonMobil, BP and OPEC are fairly aligned at about a 15% penetration by 2040. Notably, if you compare 2017 v. 2018, you’ll see that BP, OPEC and Exxon raised their projections even though these organizations continue to take a conservative view.
  • The super progressive view: Not surprisingly, Bloomberg New Energy Finance is in this category with its 55% penetration rate by 2040. DNV’s is even more progressive though at 50% penetration by2033. IEA’s most progressive scenario, the Future Is Electric, is also in this category.

• Also interesting to point out is that BEVs are expected to dominate over, for example, plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs); although, JP Morgan believes hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) will play a strong role in the market.

• The largest markets generally are China, the EU, India and North America.

• For the first time, several analyses are tackling the future of heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) as well as two- and three-wheelers, including DNV and IEA. I expect this is going to change in the next few years and we will see a lot more analyses on the future of electrification in the HDV fleet.

Automaker Investments Analyses Updated

Last April, I wrote that the auto industry was planning to spend US$213 billion over the next few years to bring EVs to market.  In an updated analysis based on data from Reuters, that number has now climbed to US$300 billion. About 45% of that investment is dedicated just to bringing EVs to market in China. The spreadsheet below includes information by automaker and retains the 2018 data for comparison.

I will continue to update this work as well. The figure below shows the investments by automaker, and includes specific battery investments as well for the few companies that have released that information.

Volkswagen alone represents about a third of the total global investment and is moving aggressively to gain a leadership position in the space as well as put the Dieselgate scandal behind it for good. Only Daimler comes close to its kind of spending, at US$72 billion. Note: I think the numbers for some companies, such as GM, are bound to be higher.